The Stockdale Paradox

By: Aaron Barrette

I’m in my mid-forties and the first presidential election I ever voted in was the fall after my senior year in high school, when Bill Clinton defeated incumbent George Bush and Independent candidate Ross Perot. That election, which seems so quaint compared to recent presidential elections, is remembered for Clinton playing the saxophone on Arsenio Hall and Ross Perot and his crazy charts and graphs buying up TV time to talk about the “giant sucking sound” of jobs being lost to Mexico. One of the minor players of the 1992 election was Admiral James Stockdale, who uttered the famous line, “Who am I? Why am I here?”, as he introduced himself in the VP debate. A public that knew little about Stockdale and his amazing story turned the Admiral into late night comedy fodder, with Phil Hartman on SNL with one of the more memorable impressions.

As an 18-year-old at the time I was unfamiliar with Stockdale’s bravery during the Vietnam War. It wasn’t until later in college at the University of Arizona that I became familiar with his incredible story. At a different stage in my life, as I become a fan of Stoic philosophy, I was introduced to that side of Stockdale.

Like many I learned about Stockdale’s time as a POW in Vietnam through the story of John McCain. The future Presidential candidate was an Arizona Senator during my time in Arizona as a college student. While McCain’s fame greatly surpassed that of Stockdale, it was Stockdale who was the highest ranking POW in Vietnam, commanding the rest of the POW’s during his time in captivity. In all Admiral Stockdale spent nearly 8 years in captivity, over half of those years in solitary confinement. This included two years in leg irons. In all he was tortured fifteen times. For his bravery and leadership Stockdale was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor.

His ability to withstand torture and solitary confinement, all the while leading over four-hundred POW’s in secrecy through covert communication, led Jim Collins to come up with the concept of the “Stockdale Paradox” in his famous business book, Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap…and Others Don’t.

Collins recognized the personal characteristics of Stockdale’s ability to survive in such difficult conditions and over several years with the perseverance and eventual success of many of the world’s great companies.

Collins defines the Stockdale Paradox as:

You must retain faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties.

AND at the same time…

You must confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

In essence you have to have complete confidence in your eventual success in whatever major endeavor you choose, but, you also have to understand that it is not going to be easy and you will likely struggle on your path towards achieving your bigger goals.

This mindset is very much rooted in Stoicism, a philosophy that Stockdale studied in graduate school at Stanford University prior to his deployment in Vietnam. The Admiral would later credit Stoicism with his ability to cope during his time in captivity.

In a 1993 speech delivered at King’s College London, Stockdale said he knew immediately when his plan was shot down that he was “leaving the world of technology and entering the world of Epictetus.”

“After ejection … I whispered to myself: I’m leaving the world of technology and entering the world of Epictetus … as I ejected from that airplane was the understanding that a Stoic always kept separate files in his mind for (A) those things that are “up to him” and (B) those things that are “not up to him.” Another way of saying it is (A) those things that are “within his power” and (B) those things that are “beyond his power.” Still another way of saying it is (A) those things that are within the grasp of “his Will, his Free Will” and (B) those things that are beyond it. All in category B are “external,” beyond my control, ultimately dooming me to fear and anxiety if I covet them. All in category A are up to me, within my power, within my will, and properly subjects for my total concern and involvement. They include my opinions, my aims, my aversions, my own grief, my own joy, my judgments, my attitude about what is going on, my own good, and my own evil.”

Stockdale’s recounting of what went through his mind is a perfect example of one of the major themes of Stoicism, focusing on what is in our control and not obsessing about what we can’t control. The Admiral realized he was very soon entering a dire situation and made the split second decision to only be concerned with things that are in his power.

More from Good to Great on the Stockdale Paradox:

“I never lost faith in the end of the story. I never doubted, not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining moment of my life, which in retrospect I would not trade.”

Ironically, the POW’s that didn’t make it out were the optimists, according to Stockdale. They had the optimism that they would eventually get out, but never truly embraced the reality of their harsh conditions.

Stockdale, via Good to Great when asked about the soldiers that didn’t get out:

“Oh, that's easy, the optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they'd say, 'We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart”

Stockdale then added:

“This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end— which you can never afford to lose— with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your reality, whatever they might be. “

There’s a real lesson in the Stockdale Paradox. Of course the situation that Stockdale faced was truly dire and a scenario that would break just about anyone. The situations we face day-to-day pale in comparison to his challenge. Still, we all have bigger long-term challenges that we are facing and have to approach both with an optimism, but also with the realism that it’s not going to be easy and there are real obstacles that we will have to overcome.

I think of the Stockdale Paradox each year as a I enter a new sales year. The solutions I sell to my clients are very complex and the sales cycles are often long and challenging. My sales manager and I have adopted the title from Ryan Holiday’s book on Stoicism, The Obstacle is the Way as a reminder to each other that although our jobs are very complex and frustrating at times, we will eventually overcome these obstacles and hit our objectives in the end. Often, at the end of our fiscal quarters when we are trying to bring in deals to help achieve our personal and company objectives, we will have a particularly challenging situation that seems insurmountable at the time. At that point one of use will inevitably text the other saying, “the obstacle is the way.” The use of the term is a reminder that we are always going to face challenges, but we have to take the obstacle head on— our path to success relies on overcoming each obstacle that is put in our way.

In the conclusion of his 1993 speech at King’s College, Stockdale recounted an anecdote that perfectly captured the mentality required to overcome the massive obstacles he faced during incarceration.

From his speech:

Conclusion of his speech at King’s College in 1993:

Back in my cell, after the guard locked the door, I sat on my toilet bucket–-–where I could stealthily jettison the note if the peephole cover moved–-–and unfolded Hatcher’s sheet of low-grade paper toweling on which, with a rat dropping, he had printed, without comment or signature, the last verse of Ernest Henley’s poem Invictus:

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishment the scroll,
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul